The Bullion Report – August 30, 2010

Gold Prices Stuck in Neutral
The Street
Gold prices were trading sideways Monday as thinning volume and the Bank of Japan’s attempt to control the yen’s meteoric rise provided little direction. Gold for December delivery was adding 30 cents to $1,236.90 an ounce at the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange. The gold price Monday has traded as high as $1,239 and as low as $1,235. The U.S. dollar index was relatively flat at $82.95 while the euro fell 0.46% to $1.27 vs. the dollar. The spot gold price today was lower by $1, according to Kitco’s gold index.
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The Big Move Is Still To Come!
Kitco
In the big picture we think the gold and silver bull market has just started to warm up. It is not that we believe the ten year bull market has not been underway for a significant amount of time, but rather we believe the majority of the price appreciation is ahead and not behind us. There is a common belief that rising interest rates are negative for the price of gold. Where do these crazy ideas come from? If that is the case then gold investors should fear that the bull market is nearly over as interest rates are near zero and when they eventually do rise the bull market will be threatened.
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Gold Market Update
GoldSeek
In the last update we were looking for gold to turn lower, it did turn lower and dropped quite heavily back to its 200-day moving average. However, it has risen all the way back up again and is now within striking distance of breaking out to new highs. On its 1-year chart we can see how gold has been rising steadily for 4 straight weeks now to arrive at a zone of substantial resistance approaching its highs. This fact alone makes it likely that it will pause beneath the highs and possibly react slightly before it can break out to new highs.
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Silver Market Update
SilverSeek
After looking extremely vulnerable for weeks, silver staged an upside breakout last week that has taken the price away from the danger zone and also signaled a probable breakout to new highs that, should it occur after such a prolonged standoff, can be expected to lead to a powerful uptrend that takes the price to a target area in the high $20’s. On its 6-month chart we can see how on Wednesday silver broke out upside from the Triangle it had been stuck in for months.
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How Does Double Dip Recession Affect Gold?
Commodity Online
Nearly all the commentary we have heard on this question says the same. “Yes, the prospects of a Double-Dip recession have increased but it remains unlikely that it will happen”. We feel that there may be just a hint of self-interest in these answers. The shockwaves that will reverberate should some say it is going to happen, or if the news confirmed that it had started would rattle the markets hugely. Despite the ability to disseminate news instantly, we have to wait a month before reliable figures are published to confirm one way or the other that this is or is not the case.
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A Closer Look at Bullion-Buying in China
Seeking Alpha
One persistent gripe I have with media analysis of economic issues is the extremely stunted perspective on news items. What I mean by this is that a news item will come out which suggests a particular trend (to greater or lesser degrees). What we will then see is a legion of media pundits jumping on this one inference – and then framing it as if it represents the only rational conclusion for this piece of news. In fact, as anyone with a reasonable amount of imagination and/or analytical expertise can tell you, most news items are suggestive of at least two possible scenarios – and often more.
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